Estimation of Dependence of Seasonal Predictability of Meteorological Quantities in Different Regions of the Northern Hemisphere on the El Nino-Southern Oscillation Phenomenon

被引：2

作者：

Kaznacheyeva, V. D. ^{[1
]}

Trosnikov, I. V. ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Hydrometeorol Res Ctr Russian Federat, Moscow 123242, Russia

来源：

RUSSIAN METEOROLOGY AND HYDROLOGY | 2008年 / 33卷 / 02期

关键词：

Atmospheric movements - Climate change - Estimation - Mean square error;

D O I：

10.3103/S1068373908020015

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

Potential predictability and rms errors of ensemble forecasting of seasonal variability of the meteorological fields are estimated for different El Nino-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) episodes in the winter and summer of 1983-2002. By means of composite analysis, the rms errors and the potential predictability index are compared for different ENSO episodes in seven regions of the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes. It is shown that the ENSO signals have a model-resolved response in the atmospheric circulation patterns in certain extratropical regions for some meteorological quantities. Geographic distribution of the potential predictability index shows that the maximum values occur near the centers of action of the main teleconnection systems.

引用

页码：63 / 72

页数：10