A Probabilistic Evaluation Method of Household EVs Dispatching Potential Considering Users' Multiple Travel Needs

With the explosion of on-road electric vehicles (EVs), private EVs become the most majority of the EV population, and also turn out to have the most flexible dispatching potential for power system. Accurate potential analysis of the flexibility has great significance for charging infrastructure upgrade, power system operation, and market mechanism design. A probabilistic evaluation method of household EVs dispatching potential is proposed here considering users' multiple travel needs. Based on a realistic investigation on driving pattern of domestic cars, the probability distributions of multiple trip parameters are fitted with a proposed least square estimation based parameter optimization method. Sequentially, the sampling of random trip parameters is conducted considering the plug-in rate and coupling characteristics of trip parameters with a copula-based sampling method. Based on evaluating the shifting potential of EV charging load, the influence on the shifted load, brought by the implementation of time-of-use (TOU) price mechanism, is quantified by taking residential energy consumption behavior into account. Numerical result shows the accuracy and rationality to simulate the charging load considering multiple daily travel needs and the effectiveness of TOU price on EV load shifting based on the dispatching potential evaluation.