Prediction of binge drinking in young adults: a cohort study over nine years

Objective: Which person characteristics and environmental factors predict binge drinking at age 21?Method: A longitudinal observational study with a nine-year follow-up. A total of 5,176 adolescents from the German states Schleswig-Holstein and Saxony-Anhalt were surveyed in 2006 with paper-pencil questionnaires (mean age 12.6 years, SD = 0.6). A follow-up assessment was conducted in the year 2015. Baseline predictors were age, gender, school type, school performance, parenting style, early experience with alcohol, alcohol use of parents, alcohol use of friends, and sensation seeking. Primary outcome in 2015 was binge drinking at least once a month (six or more alcoholic drinks during one drinking occasion). Results: A subsample of 1,087 (20.9%) of the former students could be surveyed nine years after baseline (mean age 21.6 years, SD = 0.8). One out of four (25.4%) reported binge drinking at least once in a month. A multiple regression model revealed three significant predictors of binge drinking: male gender, early experience with alcohol and frequency of parental alcohol use at baseline. Conclusions: Perceived frequency of parental alcohol use might be an important risk factor for children's alcohol use in early adulthood. Parents need to reflect their rote as alcohol-specific socialization agents.