Development of a Combined Operational and Strategic Decision Support Model for Offshore Wind

被引：61

作者：

Dinwoodie, Iain ^{[1
]}

McMillan, David ^{[2
]}

Revie, Matthew ^{[3
]}

Lazakis, Iraklis ^{[4
]}

Dalgic, Yalcin ^{[4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Strathclyde, Wind Energy CDT, Royal Coll, R336, Glasgow G1 1XW, Lanark, Scotland

[2] Univ Strathclyde, Royal Coll, Inst Energy & Environ, Glasgow G1 1XW, Lanark, Scotland

[3] Univ Strathclyde, Dept Management Sci, Glasgow, Lanark G1 1QE, Scotland

[4] Univ Strathclyde, Dept Naval Architect, Glasgow, Lanark G4 0LZ, Scotland

来源：

DEEPWIND'2013 - SELECTED PAPERS FROM 10TH DEEP SEA OFFSHORE WIND R&D CONFERENCE | 2013年 / 35卷

基金：

英国工程与自然科学研究理事会;

关键词：

Offshore wind; Operations and Maintenance (O&M); Failure modeling; Decision support; MAINTENANCE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.egypro.2013.07.169

中图分类号：

TE [石油、天然气工业]; TK [能源与动力工程];

学科分类号：

0807 ; 0820 ;

摘要：

This paper presents the development of a combined operational and strategic decision support model for offshore wind operations. The purpose of the model is to allow developers and operators to explore various expected operating scenarios over the project lifetime in order to determine optimal operating strategies and associated risks. The required operational knowledge for the model is specified and the chosen methodology is described. The operational model has been established in the MATLAB environment in order to simulate operating costs and lost revenue, based on wind farm specification, operational climate and operating strategy. The outputs from this model are then used as the input to decision support analysis by establishing Bayesian Belief Networks and decision trees at various stages throughout the project life time. An illustrative case study, which demonstrates the capability and benefits of the modeling approach, is presented through the examination of different failure rates and alternative electricity price scenarios. (C) 2013 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.

引用

页码：157 / 166

页数：10

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