Global-scale multidecadal variability missing in state-of-the-art climate models

被引:44
作者
Kravtsov, S. [1 ,2 ]
Grimm, C. [1 ]
Gu, S. [1 ,3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Wisconsin, Dept Math Sci, Atmospher Sci Grp, Milwaukee, WI 53201 USA
[2] Russian Acad Sci, PP Shirshov Inst Oceanol, Moscow, Russia
[3] Cty Coll Morris, Dept Math, Randolph, NJ USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会; 俄罗斯科学基金会; 美国海洋和大气管理局;
关键词
MERIDIONAL OVERTURNING CIRCULATION; SURFACE WARMING HIATUS; TROPICAL PACIFIC; SEA-ICE; ATLANTIC; TEMPERATURE; PREDICTABILITY; OSCILLATION; SLOWDOWN; TRENDS;
D O I
10.1038/s41612-018-0044-6
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Reliability of future global warming projections depends on how well climate models reproduce the observed climate change over the twentieth century. In this regard, deviations of the model-simulated climate change from observations, such as a recent "pause" in global warming, have received considerable attention. Such decadal mismatches between model-simulated and observed climate trends are common throughout the twentieth century, and their causes are still poorly understood. Here we show that the discrepancies between the observed and simulated climate variability on decadal and longer timescale have a coherent structure suggestive of a pronounced Global Multidecadal Oscillation. Surface temperature anomalies associated with this variability originate in the North Atlantic and spread out to the Pacific and Southern oceans and Antarctica, with Arctic following suit in about 25-35 years. While climate models exhibit various levels of decadal climate variability and some regional similarities to observations, none of the model simulations considered match the observed signal in terms of its magnitude, spatial patterns and their sequential time development. These results highlight a substantial degree of uncertainty in our interpretation of the observed climate change using current generation of climate models.
引用
收藏
页数:10
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