INFEKTA-An agent-based model for transmission of infectious diseases: The COVID-19 case in Bogota, Colombia

被引:34
作者
Gomez, Jonatan [1 ]
Prieto, Jeisson [2 ]
Leon, Elizabeth [1 ]
Rodriguez, Arles [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Nacl Colombia, Fac Ingn, Dept Ingn Sistemas & Ind, Bogota, Colombia
[2] Univ Nacl Colombia, Fac Ciencias, Dept Matemat, Bogota, Colombia
[3] Fdn Univ Konrad Lorenz, Ctr Invest Matemat & Ingn, Bogota, Colombia
来源
PLOS ONE | 2021年 / 16卷 / 02期
关键词
SYSTEMS; EPIDEMIOLOGY;
D O I
10.1371/journal.pone.0245787
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
The transmission dynamics of the coronavirus-COVID-19-have challenged humankind at almost every level. Currently, research groups around the globe are trying to figure out such transmission dynamics under special conditions such as separation policies enforced by governments. Mathematical and computational models, like the compartmental model or the agent-based model, are being used for this purpose. This paper proposes an agent-based model, called INFEKTA, for simulating the transmission of infectious diseases, not only the COVID-19, under social distancing policies. INFEKTA combines the transmission dynamic of a specific disease, (according to parameters found in the literature) with demographic information (population density, age, and genre of individuals) of geopolitical regions of the real town or city under study. Agents (virtual persons) can move, according to its mobility routines and the enforced social distancing policy, on a complex network of accessible places defined over an Euclidean space representing the town or city. The transmission dynamics of the COVID-19 under different social distancing policies in Bogota city, the capital of Colombia, is simulated using INFEKTA with one million virtual persons. A sensitivity analysis of the impact of social distancing policies indicates that it is possible to establish a 'medium' (i.e., close 40% of the places) social distancing policy to achieve a significant reduction in the disease transmission.
引用
收藏
页数:16
相关论文
共 42 条
[1]  
Adamatzky A., 2014, ARTIFICIAL LIFE MODE, V2
[2]   Hierarchical structure of biological systems A bioengineering approach [J].
Alcocer-Cuaron, Carlos ;
Rivera, Ana L. ;
Castano, Victor M. .
BIOENGINEERED, 2014, 5 (02) :73-79
[3]   Agent-based models in translational systems biology [J].
An, Gary ;
Mi, Qi ;
Dutta-Moscato, Joyeeta ;
Vodovotz, Yoram .
WILEY INTERDISCIPLINARY REVIEWS-SYSTEMS BIOLOGY AND MEDICINE, 2009, 1 (02) :159-171
[4]  
Balaji PG, 2010, STUD COMPUT INTELL, V310, P1
[5]  
Bastian M., 2009, Association for the Advancement of Artificial Intelligence
[6]   Modelling transmission and control of the COVID-19 pandemic in Australia [J].
Chang, Sheryl L. ;
Harding, Nathan ;
Zachreson, Cameron ;
Cliff, Oliver M. ;
Prokopenko, Mikhail .
NATURE COMMUNICATIONS, 2020, 11 (01)
[7]  
Chinazzi M, 2020, SCIENCE, V368, P395, DOI [10.1126/science.aba9757, 10.1101/2020.02.09.20021261]
[8]   Protecting health care workers: a pandemic simulation based on Allegheny County [J].
Cooley, Philip ;
Lee, Bruce Y. ;
Brown, Shawn ;
Cajka, James ;
Chasteen, Bernadette ;
Ganapathi, Laxminarayana ;
Stark, James H. ;
Wheaton, William D. ;
Wagener, Diane K. ;
Burke, Donald S. .
INFLUENZA AND OTHER RESPIRATORY VIRUSES, 2010, 4 (02) :61-72
[9]   Covid-19: four fifths of cases are asymptomatic, China figures indicate [J].
Day, Michael .
BMJ-BRITISH MEDICAL JOURNAL, 2020, 369 :m1375
[10]   The Effect of Contact Investigations and Public Health Interventions in the Control and Prevention of Measles Transmission: A Simulation Study [J].
Enanoria, Wayne T. A. ;
Liu, Fengchen ;
Zipprich, Jennifer ;
Harriman, Kathleen ;
Ackley, Sarah ;
Blumberg, Seth ;
Worden, Lee ;
Porco, Travis C. .
PLOS ONE, 2016, 11 (12)