National GHG emissions reduction pledges and 2°C: comparison of studies

被引：22

作者：

Hoehne, Niklas ^{[1
]}

Taylor, Christopher ^{[2
]}

Elias, Ramzi ^{[3
]}

Den Elzen, Michel ^{[4
]}

Riahi, Keywan ^{[5
]}

Chen, Claudine ^{[6
]}

Rogelj, Joeri ^{[7
]}

Grassi, Giacomo ^{[8
]}

Wagner, Fabian ^{[5
]}

Levin, Kelly ^{[9
]}

Massetti, Emanuele ^{[10
]}

Zhao Xiusheng ^{[11
]}

机构：

[1] Ecofys Germany, D-50829 Cologne, Germany

[2] London Sch Econ, Grantham Res Inst Climate Change & Environm, London WC2A 2AZ, England

[3] European Climate Fdn, Int Climate Diplomacy Team, B-1050 Brussels, Belgium

[4] PBL Netherlands Environm Assessment Agcy, NL-3721 MA Bilthoven, Netherlands

[5] IIASA, Energy Program, A-2361 Laxenburg, Austria

[6] Potsdam Inst Climate Impact Res PIK, PRIMAP Grp, D-14473 Potsdam, Germany

[7] Swiss Fed Inst Technol, Inst Atmospher & Climate Sci, CH-8092 Zurich, Switzerland

[8] European Commiss Joint Res Ctr, Inst Environm & Sustainabil, Climate Change & Air Qual Unit, I-21027 Ispra, VA, Italy

[9] World Resources Inst, Climate & Energy Program, Washington, DC 20002 USA

[10] Fdn Eni Enrico Mattei & Euromediterranean, Ctr Climate Change, I-30124 Venice, Italy

[11] Tsinghua Univ, INET, Beijing 100084, Peoples R China

来源：

CLIMATE POLICY | 2012年 / 12卷 / 03期

关键词：

emissions reduction; GHG emissions; international negotiations; LULUCF; stabilization scenarios;

D O I：

10.1080/14693062.2011.637818

中图分类号：

X [环境科学、安全科学];

学科分类号：

08 ; 0830 ;

摘要：

This article provides further detail on expected global GHG emission levels in 2020, based on the Emissions Gap Report (United Nations Environment Programme, December 2010), assuming the emission reduction proposals in the Copenhagen Accord and Cancun Agreements are met. Large differences are found in the results of individual groups owing to uncertainties in current and projected emission estimates and in the interpretation of the reduction proposals. Regardless of these uncertainties, the pledges for 2020 are expected to deliver emission levels above those that are consistent with a 2 degrees C limit. This emissions gap could be narrowed through implementing the more stringent conditional pledges, minimizing the use of 'lenient' credits from forests and surplus emission units, avoiding double-counting of offsets and implementing measures beyond current pledges. Conversely, emission reduction gains from countries moving from their low to high ambition pledges could be more than offset by the use of 'lenient' land use, land-use change and forestry (LULUCF) credits and surplus emissions units, if these were used to the maximum. Laying the groundwork for faster emission reduction rates after 2020 appears to be crucial in any case.

引用

页码：356 / 377

页数：22

共 37 条

[21] THE COPENHAGEN ACCORD/CANCUN AGREEMENTS EMISSION PLEDGES FOR 2020: EXPLORING ECONOMIC AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS [J].