Glycemic variability and all-cause mortality in a large prospective southern European cohort of patients with differences in glycemic status

Background Few studies have analyzed the relationship between glucose variability (GV) and adverse health outcomes in patients with differences in glycemic status. The present study tests the hypothesis that GV predicts all-cause mortality regardless of glycemic status after simple adjustment (age and sex) and full adjustment (age, sex, cardiovascular disease, hypertension, use of aspirin, statins, GLP-1 receptor agonists, SGLT-2 inhibitors and DPP-4 inhibitors, baseline FPG and average HbA1c). Methods Prospective cohort study with 795 normoglycemic patients, 233 patients with prediabetes, and 4,102 patients with type 2 diabetes. GV was measured using the coefficient of variation of fasting plasma glucose (CV-FPG) over 12 years of follow-up. The outcome measure was all-cause mortality. Results A total of 1,223 patients (657 men, 566 women) died after a median of 9.8 years of follow-up, with an all-cause mortality rate of 23.35/1,000 person-years. In prediabetes or T2DM patients, the fourth quartile of CV-FPG exerted a significant effect on all-cause mortality after simple and full adjustment. A sensitivity analysis excluding participants who died during the first year of follow-up revealed the following results for the highest quartile in the fully adjusted model: overall, HR (95%CI = 1.54 (1.26-1.89); dysglycemia (prediabetes and T2DM), HR = 1.41 (1.15-1.73); T2DM, HR = 1.36 (1.10-1.67). Conclusion We found CV-FPG to be useful for measurement of GV. It could also be used for the prognostic stratification of patients with dysglycemia.