Predicting the cumulative number of cases for the COVID-19 epidemic in China from early data

被引：84

作者：

Liu, Zhihua ^{[1
]}

Magal, Pierre ^{[2
,3
]}

Seydi, Ousmane ^{[4
]}

Webb, Glenn ^{[5
]}

机构：

[1] Beijing Normal Univ, Sch Math Sci, Beijing 100875, Peoples R China

[2] Univ Bordeaux, IMB, UMR 5251, F-33400 Talence, France

[3] CNRS, IMB, UMR 5251, F-33400 Talence, France

[4] Ecole Polytech Thies, Dept Tronc Commun, Thies, Senegal

[5] Vanderbilt Univ, Dept Math, Nashville, TN USA

来源：

MATHEMATICAL BIOSCIENCES AND ENGINEERING | 2020年 / 17卷 / 04期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

corona virus; reported and unreported cases; isolation; quarantine; public closings; epidemic mathematical model;

D O I：

10.3934/mbe.2020172

中图分类号：

Q [生物科学];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

We model the COVID-19 coronavirus epidemic in China. We use early reported case data to predict the cumulative number of reported cases to a final size. The key features of our model are the timing of implementation of major public policies restricting social movement, the identification and isolation of unreported cases, and the impact of asymptomatic infectious cases.

引用

页码：3040 / 3051

页数：12

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