Electoral surveys' influence on the voting processes: a cellular automata model

Nowadays, in societies threatened by atomization, selfishness, short-term thinking, and alienation from political life, there is a renewed debate about classical questions concerning the quality of democratic decision making. In this work a cellular automata model for the dynamics of free elections, based on the social impact theory is proposed. By using computer simulations, power-law distributions for the size of electoral clusters and decision time have been obtained. The major role of broadcasted electoral surveys in guiding opinion formation and stabilizing the "status quo" was demonstrated. Furthermore, it was shown that in societies where these surveys are manipulated within the universally accepted statistical error bars, even a majoritary opposition could be hindered from reaching power through the electoral path. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.