Subjective probabilities on "small" domains

被引:32
|
作者
Kopylov, Igor [1 ]
机构
[1] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Econ, Irvine, CA 92697 USA
[2] Univ Calif Irvine, Inst Math Behav Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA
关键词
subjective probability; expected utility; probabilistic sophistication; Ellsberg Paradox; mosaic;
D O I
10.1016/j.jet.2005.11.002
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
The Savagian choice-theoretic construction of subjective probability does not apply to preferences, like those in the Ellsberg Paradox, that reflect a distinction between risk and ambiguity. We formulate two representation results-one for expected utility, the other for probabilistic sophistication-that derive subjective probabilities but only on a "small" domain of risky events. Risky events can be either specified exogenously or in terms of choice behavior; in the latter case, both the values and the domain of probability are subjective. The analysis identifies a mathematical structure-called a mosaic-that is intuitive for both exogenous and behavioral specifications of risky events. This structure is weaker than an algebra or even lambda-system. (c) 2005 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
引用
收藏
页码:236 / 265
页数:30
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