National and regional type I and II input-output multipliers: Analysis of calculation methods

The main application of input-output models is the analysis and forecasting of impact that changes in the final consumption volume and composition have on the production structure. The paper presents results of type I and II multipliers calculation for national and regional (evidence from Moscow) economies based on the input-output tables for 2016 for aggregated economic activities. The attention is devoted first of all to structural aspects of multiplicative effects and to the analysis of the variability of regional multipliers calculation results depending on the approaches. To derive regional multipliers we apply location quotient-based approaches. We show that national type II (including induced effects) and regional multipliers estimations may be highly sensitive to the estimation technique choice. Results from such calculations should be interpreted with consideration to differences of the used techniques and their tendencies to under- or overestimate effects of the final consumption structural changes.