Prediction of chronic kidney disease progression used by calcineurin inhibitor concentration and estimated glomerular filtration rate early after liver transplantation

Background: Chronic kidney disease (CKD) is a common late complication in liver-transplanted patients who have received long-term therapy with calcineurin inhibitors (CNIs). Aims: To analyze kidney disease progression after liver transplantation Methods: We analysed the clinical data of adult single-organ liver transplant recipients performed at our centre between October 2003 and September 2009. The patients with the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) greater than 60 ml/min/1.73 m2 before surgery were included in the study. Results: 69 patients with complete follow-up data were analysed. We found that eGFR at 1 or 2 years after liver transplantation correlated well with eGFR at 5 years. In addition, our results showed that patients whose eGFR declined below 60 at 2 years after liver transplantation would develop an irreversible renal injury in the following years. At 2 years, 12 patients had an eGFR less than 60, which were maintained in 11 patients at 5 years (Sensitivity = 11/12, 91.67%; Specificity = 57/58, 98.28%, Youden's index = 89.95%). The annual rate of eGFR reduction of the tacrolimus group was greater than that of the tacrolimus sparing group based on the value-time variation curve in our study. Moreover, the tacrolimus concentration influenced the CKD progression at 1 and 2 years with an under the ROC curve of 0.73 and 0.78 when Youden's index was at its maximum and the tacrolimus concentrations were 8.55 and 5.96 ng/ml, respectively. Conclusion: We confirmed that eGFR at 2 years after liver transplantation is useful for observing a meaningful change in eGFR and renal damage. Obtaining the appropriate serum concentration of an early decrease of the dose of CNIs and transforming non-nephrotoxic immunosuppressants would help improve renal function to prevent CKD progression and end-stage renal disease (ESRD).