Prediction of Mortality Using Different COPD Risk Assessments - A 12-Year Follow-Up

被引:8
作者
Athlin, Asa [1 ]
Giezeman, Maaike [1 ,2 ]
Hasselgren, Mikael [1 ]
Montgomery, Scott [3 ,4 ,5 ]
Lisspers, Karin [6 ]
Stallberg, Bjorn [6 ]
Janson, Christer [7 ]
Sundh, Josefin [8 ]
机构
[1] Orebro Univ, Fac Med & Hlth, Sch Med Sci, Orebro, Sweden
[2] Ctr Clin Res, Karlstad, Sweden
[3] Orebro Univ, Sch Med Sci, Clin Epidemiol & Biostat, S-70182 Orebro, Sweden
[4] Karolinska Inst, Dept Med, Clin Epidemiol Div, Stockholm, Sweden
[5] UCL, Dept Epidemiol & Publ Hlth, London, England
[6] Uppsala Univ, Dept Publ Hlth & Caring Sci Family Med & Prevent, Uppsala, Sweden
[7] Uppsala Univ, Dept Med Sci Resp Allergy & Sleep Res, Uppsala, Sweden
[8] Orebro Univ, Fac Med & Hlth, Sch Med Sci, Dept Resp Med, Orebro, Sweden
来源
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CHRONIC OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY DISEASE | 2021年 / 16卷
关键词
chronic obstructive pulmonary disease; GOLD classification; ADO index; DOSE index; prediction; mortality; OBSTRUCTIVE PULMONARY-DISEASE; EXTERNAL VALIDATION; 2017; CLASSIFICATION; STAGING SYSTEMS; ADO; DYSPNEA; INDEX; QUESTIONNAIRE; EXACERBATIONS; PREVALENCE;
D O I
10.2147/COPD.S282694
中图分类号
R56 [呼吸系及胸部疾病];
学科分类号
摘要
Purpose: A multidimensional approach in the risk assessment of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is preferable. The aim of this study is to compare the prognostic ability for mortality by different COPD assessment systems; spirometric staging, classification by GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017, the age, dyspnea, obstruction (ADO) and the dyspnea, obstruction, smoking, exacerbation (DOSE) indices. Patients and Methods: A total of 490 patients diagnosed with COPD were recruited from primary and secondary care in central Sweden in 2005. The cohort was followed until 2017. Data for categorization using the different assessment systems were obtained through questionnaire data from 2005 and medical record reviews between 2000 and 2003. Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and Cox proportional hazard models were used to assess mortality risk. Receiver operating characteristic curves estimated areas under the curve (AUC) to evaluate each assessment systems' ability to predict mortality. Results: By the end of follow-up, 49% of the patients were deceased. The mortality rate was higher for patients categorized as stage 3-4, GOLD D in both GOLD classifications and those with a DOSE score above 4 and ADO score above 8. The ADO index was most accurate for predicting mortality, AUC 0.79 (95% CI 0.75-0.83) for all-cause mortality and 0.80 (95% CI 0.75-0.85) for respiratory mortality. The AUC values for stages 1-4, GOLD 2011, GOLD 2017 and DOSE index were 0.73, 0.66, 0.63 and 0.69, respectively, for allcause mortality. Conclusion: All of the risk assessment systems predict mortality. The ADO index was in this study the best predictor and could be a helpful tool in COPD risk assessment.
引用
收藏
页码:665 / 675
页数:11
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