Uncertainty estimation by Bayesian approach in thermochemical conversion of walnut hull and lignite coal blends

被引：25

作者：

Buyukada, Musa ^{[1
]}

机构：

[1] Abant Izzet Baysal Univ, Dept Environm Engn, TR-14052 Bolu, Turkey

来源：

BIORESOURCE TECHNOLOGY | 2017年 / 232卷

关键词：

Walnut hull; Co-combustion; Non-linear regression; Uncertainty analysis; Monte Carlo simulation; Bayesian approach; ARTIFICIAL NEURAL-NETWORKS; CIRCULATING FLUIDIZED-BED; THERMOGRAVIMETRIC ANALYSIS; PEANUT HULL; COCOMBUSTION; BIOMASS; OPTIMIZATION; COMBUSTION; MIXTURES; SLUDGE;

D O I：

10.1016/j.biortech.2017.02.021

中图分类号：

S2 [农业工程];

学科分类号：

0828 ;

摘要：

The main purpose of the present study was to incorporate the uncertainties in the thermal behavior of walnut hull (WH), lignite coal, and their various blends using Bayesian approach. First of all, thermal behavior of related materials were investigated under different temperatures, blend ratios, and heating rates. Results of ultimate and proximate analyses showed the main steps of oxidation mechanism of (co-)combustion process. Thermal degradation started with the (hemi-)cellulosic compounds and finished with lignin. Finally, a partial sensitivity analysis based on Bayesian approach (Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulations) were applied to data driven regression model (the best fit). The main purpose of uncertainty analysis was to point out the importance of operating conditions (explanatory variables). The other important aspect of the present work was the first performance evaluation study on various uncertainty estimation techniques in (co-)combustion literature. (C) 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

引用

页码：87 / 92

页数：6

共 24 条

[1] Co-firing of pine chips with Turkish lignites in 750 kWth circulating fluidized bed combustion system [J].

Atimtay, Aysel T. ;

Kayahan, Ufuk ;

Unlu, Alper ;

Engin, Berrin ;

Varol, Murat ;

Olgun, Hayati ;

Atakul, Husnu .

BIORESOURCE TECHNOLOGY, 2017, 224 :601-610

[2] Modeling Efficiency of Dehydrated Sunflower Seed Cake as a Novel Biosorbent to Remove a Toxic Azo Dye [J].

Buyukada, M. ;

Evrendilek, F. .

CHEMICAL ENGINEERING COMMUNICATIONS, 2016, 203 (06) :746-757

[3] Probabilistic uncertainty analysis based on Monte Carlo simulations of co-combustion of hazelnut hull and coal blends: Data-driven modeling and response surface optimization [J].

Buyukada, Musa .

BIORESOURCE TECHNOLOGY, 2017, 225 :106-112

[4] Co-combustion of peanut hull and coal blends: Artificial neural networks modeling, particle swarm optimization and Monte Carlo simulation [J].

Buyukada, Musa .

BIORESOURCE TECHNOLOGY, 2016, 216 :280-286

[5] Products characterization study of a slow pyrolysis of biomass-plastic mixtures in a fixed-bed reactor [J].

Cepeliogullara, Ozge ;

Putun, Aye E. .

JOURNAL OF ANALYTICAL AND APPLIED PYROLYSIS, 2014, 110 :363-374

[6] Bayesian Monte Carlo and maximum likelihood approach for uncertainty estimation and risk management: Application to lake oxygen recovery model [J].

Chaudhary, Abhishek ;

Hantush, Mohamed M. .

WATER RESEARCH, 2017, 108 :301-311

[7] Investigation of co-combustion characteristics of sewage sludge and coffee grounds mixtures using thermogravimetric analysis coupled to artificial neural networks modeling [J].

Chen, Jiacong ;

Liu, Jingyong ;

He, Yao ;

Huang, Limao ;

Sun, Shuiyu ;

Sun, Jian ;

Chang, KenLin ;

Kuo, Jiahong ;

Huang, Shaosong ;

Ning, Xunan .

BIORESOURCE TECHNOLOGY, 2017, 225 :234-245

[8] Modelling stochastic variability and uncertainty in aroma active compounds of PEF-treated peach nectar as a function of physical and sensory properties, and treatment time [J].

Evrendilek, Gulsun Akdemir ;

Avsar, Yahya Kemal ;

Evrendilek, Fatih .

FOOD CHEMISTRY, 2016, 190 :634-642

[9] Thermogravimetric analysis of the co-combustion of paper mill sludge and municipal solid waste [J].

Hu, Shanchao ;

Ma, Xiaoqian ;

Lin, Yousheng ;

Yu, Zhaosheng ;

Fang, Shiwen .

ENERGY CONVERSION AND MANAGEMENT, 2015, 99 :112-118

[10] Combustion of the coal-water slurry doped by combustible and non-combustible micro-particles [J].

Iegorov, Roman ;

Valiullin, Timur ;

Strizhak, Pavel .

APPLIED THERMAL ENGINEERING, 2017, 113 :1021-1023

← 1 2 3 →