Projected climate-driven faunal movement routes

被引:147
作者
Lawler, J. J. [1 ]
Ruesch, A. S. [1 ]
Olden, J. D. [2 ]
McRae, B. H. [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Washington, Sch Environm & Forest Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
[2] Univ Washington, Sch Aquat & Fishery Sci, Seattle, WA 98195 USA
[3] Nature Conservancy, N Amer Region, Seattle, WA 98101 USA
关键词
Amphibians; birds; climate change; connectivity; corridors; mammals; movement; range shifts; CONSERVATION; CONNECTIVITY; BIODIVERSITY; MODEL; LANDSCAPES; PATTERNS; IMPACTS; THREATS; SHIFTS;
D O I
10.1111/ele.12132
中图分类号
Q14 [生态学(生物生态学)];
学科分类号
071012 ; 0713 ;
摘要
Historically, many species moved great distances as climates changed. However, modern movements will be limited by the patterns of human-dominated landscapes. Here, we use a combination of projected climate-driven shifts in the distributions of 2903 vertebrate species, estimated current human impacts on the landscape, and movement models, to determine through which areas in the western hemisphere species will likely need to move to track suitable climates. Our results reveal areas with projected high densities of climate-driven movements - including, the Amazon Basin, the southeastern United States and southeastern Brazil. Some of these regions, such as southern Bolivia and northern Paraguay, contain relatively intact landscapes, whereas others such as the southeastern United States and Brazil are heavily impacted by human activities. Thus, these results highlight both critical areas for protecting lands that will foster movement, and barriers where human land-use activities will likely impede climate-driven shifts in species distributions.
引用
收藏
页码:1014 / 1022
页数:9
相关论文
共 49 条
[1]   The geography of climate change: implications for conservation biogeography [J].
Ackerly, D. D. ;
Loarie, S. R. ;
Cornwell, W. K. ;
Weiss, S. B. ;
Hamilton, H. ;
Branciforte, R. ;
Kraft, N. J. B. .
DIVERSITY AND DISTRIBUTIONS, 2010, 16 (03) :476-487
[2]   Climate warming and the decline of amphibians and reptiles in Europe [J].
Araujo, M. B. ;
Thuiller, W. ;
Pearson, R. G. .
JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, 2006, 33 (10) :1712-1728
[3]   Validation of species-climate impact models under climate change [J].
Araújo, MB ;
Pearson, RG ;
Thuiller, W ;
Erhard, M .
GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY, 2005, 11 (09) :1504-1513
[4]  
Batschelet E., 1981, CIRCULAR STAT ECOLOG
[5]   Forecasting the effects of global warming on biodiversity [J].
Botkin, Daniel B. ;
Saxe, Henrik ;
Araujo, Miguel B. ;
Betts, Richard ;
Bradshaw, Richard H. W. ;
Cedhagen, Tomas ;
Chesson, Peter ;
Dawson, Terry P. ;
Etterson, Julie R. ;
Faith, Daniel P. ;
Ferrier, Simon ;
Guisan, Antoine ;
Hansen, Anja Skjoldborg ;
Hilbert, David W. ;
Loehle, Craig ;
Margules, Chris ;
New, Mark ;
Sobel, Matthew J. ;
Stockwell, David R. B. .
BIOSCIENCE, 2007, 57 (03) :227-236
[6]   Distributional change and conservation on the Andean flank: a palaeoecological perspective [J].
Bush, MB .
GLOBAL ECOLOGY AND BIOGEOGRAPHY, 2002, 11 (06) :463-473
[7]   Historical climate modelling predicts patterns of current biodiversity in the Brazilian Atlantic forest [J].
Carnaval, Ana Carolina ;
Moritz, Craig .
JOURNAL OF BIOGEOGRAPHY, 2008, 35 (07) :1187-1201
[8]   Projecting global marine biodiversity impacts under climate change scenarios [J].
Cheung, William W. L. ;
Lam, Vicky W. Y. ;
Sarmiento, Jorge L. ;
Kearney, Kelly ;
Watson, Reg ;
Pauly, Daniel .
FISH AND FISHERIES, 2009, 10 (03) :235-251
[9]   Global patterns of fragmentation and connectivity of mammalian carnivore habitat [J].
Crooks, Kevin R. ;
Burdett, Christopher L. ;
Theobald, David M. ;
Rondinini, Carlo ;
Boitani, Luigi .
PHILOSOPHICAL TRANSACTIONS OF THE ROYAL SOCIETY B-BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES, 2011, 366 (1578) :2642-2651
[10]   Random forests for classification in ecology [J].
Cutler, D. Richard ;
Edwards, Thomas C., Jr. ;
Beard, Karen H. ;
Cutler, Adele ;
Hess, Kyle T. .
ECOLOGY, 2007, 88 (11) :2783-2792