Bounding Extreme Events in Nonlinear Dynamics Using Convex Optimization

We study a convex optimization framework for bounding extreme events in nonlinear dynamical systems governed by ordinary or partial differential equations (ODEs or PDEs). This framework bounds from above the largest value of an observable along trajectories that start from a chosen set and evolve over a finite or infinite time interval. The approach needs no explicit trajectories. Instead, it requires constructing suitably constrained auxiliary functions that depend on the state variables and possibly on time. Minimizing bounds over auxiliary functions is a convex problem dual to the nonconvex maximization of the observable along trajectories. This duality is strong, meaning that auxiliary functions give arbitrarily sharp bounds, for sufficiently regular ODEs evolving over a finite time on a compact domain. When these conditions fail, strong duality may or may not hold; both situations are illustrated by examples. We also show that near-optimal auxiliary functions can be used to construct spacetime sets that localize trajectories leading to extreme events. Finally, in the case of polynomial ODEs and observables, we describe how polynomial auxiliary functions of fixed degree can be optimized numerically using polynomial optimization. The corresponding bounds become sharp as the polynomial degree is raised if strong duality and mild compactness assumptions hold. Analytical and computational ODE examples illustrate the construction of bounds and the identification of extreme trajectories, along with some limitations. As an analytical PDE example, we bound the maximum fractional enstrophy of solutions to the Burgers equation with fractional diffusion.