WHEN INCOMPETENCE MEETS BAD LUCK: BOLSONARO'S THIRD YEAR IN THE BRAZILI AN PRESIDENCY

The third year of the Bolsonaro presidency coincided with the second year of the pandemic of the Covid-19, and with the worsening of economic conditions in the country. This article contends that Brazil's economic performance, resulting from a unique mix of "bad luck" and incompetence, is the main driver of Bolsonaro's low popular support and unfavorable electoral prospects, six months before the poll. I rely on the literature on economic voting and on assignment of responsibility to argue that this is true because citizens (1) have short memory, (2) do not discount exogenous conditions when casting an economic vote, and (3) hold the president responsible for economic outcomes. I conclude by discussing how the early realization of a potential electoral loss helps explain Bolsonaro's growing focus on his core support base and systematic attempts to challenge the fairness of Brazilian elections.