Confronting the risks of terrorism: making the right decisions

This report offers a methodology for assessing, quantitatively, the risks of terrorism. The purpose of the methodology is to support effective decision making to combat terrorism. The emphasis is on terrorist attacks that could have catastrophic consequences. The perspective taken is that in order to make the right decisions about combating terrorism, their needs to be a systematic means of assessing the likelihood of such attacks. A process of implementation of the decisions resulting from risk assessment is essential. That process includes (1) an understanding of the nature of the threat, (2) an information system linked directly to 'intelligence' on terrorism, and (3) organizational structures that can take timely, coordinated, and effective actions. There must also be sound evidence that the methodology can be successfully applied. A description of the nature of terrorism, a terrorism risk assessment methodology, information requirements to fight terrorism, and recommendations for successful implementation is what this report is about. (C) 2004 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.