A power optimization model for the long-term planning scenarios: Case study of Mexico's power system decarbonization

Mexico is committed to reducing its CO2 emissions according to the Paris Agreement. A relevant effort must be made for the analysis of Mexico's electric energy system towards a progressive decarbonization with a larger participation of intermittent renewable energies. The analysis of power planning scenarios, with different assumptions on costs, emissions, and intermittent performance of the power generating technologies, is needed to make sustainable decisions in the transition toward a cleaner power sector. Tools for energy modelling are required to develop and analyze scenarios with minimum costs subject to environmental constraints. The purpose of the article is to explain the modelling approach of a novel and flexible power planning tool, which is based on a well-known linear programming optimization method combined with a computing strategy to optimize time consumed for reading, processing calculations, and writing the huge number of economic and technical parameters required for the hourly power dispatch in complex interconnected electric systems. The time consumed has been optimized by means of a binary matrix that activates the input and use of only the data needed for the solution of the problem. The paper describes the MC model and demonstrates some of its analytical capabilities through a Mexican case study with a least cost scenario and two decarbonization scenarios of the power interconnected system for the period from 2020-2050.