Dynamic Patient Admission Control With Time-Varying and Uncertain Demands in Covid-19 Pandemic

In the coronavirus epidemic, many Chinese hospitals have established buffer zones to prevent the spread and transmission of the virus. The buffer zone is a monitored and separate area where the patients who need hospitalizations after the quick treatments in the emergency department can temporarily wait for the Covid-19 test and receive some healthcare services to stabilize their conditions. Because the beds in the buffer zones are limited, the managers face the patient admission control problem for the buffer zone. This management and control problem is challenging since the patient arrivals are uncertain, and the patients' conditions are different. In this paper, we build the infinite- and finite-horizon Markov decision process (MDP) models for this problem. We use the uniformization method to discretize the patient flow. We propose various iteration algorithms to solve the MDP models and obtain the optimal and threshold policies. Numerical experiments validate the advantages of the policies obtained by the algorithms in this paper over the current policies of hospitals.