Blue food demand across geographic and temporal scales

被引：251

作者：

Naylor, Rosamond L. ^{[1
]}

Kishore, Avinash ^{[2
]}

Sumaila, U. Rashid ^{[3
]}

Issifu, Ibrahim ^{[3
]}

Hunter, Blaire P. ^{[1
]}

Belton, Ben ^{[4
,5
]}

Bush, Simon R. ^{[6
]}

Cao, Ling ^{[7
]}

Gelcich, Stefan ^{[8
]}

Gephart, Jessica A. ^{[9
]}

Golden, Christopher D. ^{[10
]}

Jonell, Malin ^{[11
]}

Koehn, J. Zachary ^{[1
]}

Little, David C. ^{[12
]}

Thilsted, Shakuntala H. ^{[4
]}

Tigchelaar, Michelle ^{[1
]}

Crona, Beatrice ^{[11
]}

机构：

[1] Stanford Univ, Stanford, CA 94305 USA

[2] Int Food Policy Res Inst IFPRI, New Delhi, India

[3] Univ British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada

[4] WorldFish, Bayan Lepas, Malaysia

[5] Michigan State Univ, E Lansing, MI 48824 USA

[6] Wageningen Univ, Wageningen, Netherlands

[7] Shanghai Jiao Tong Univ, Shanghai, Peoples R China

[8] Pontificia Univ Catolica Chile, Santiago, Chile

[9] Amer Univ, Washington, DC 20016 USA

[10] Harvard TH Chan Sch Publ Hlth, Boston, MA USA

[11] Royal Swedish Acad Sci, Stockholm, Sweden

[12] Univ Stirling, Stirling, Scotland

来源：

NATURE COMMUNICATIONS | 2021年 / 12卷 / 01期

关键词：

SEAFOOD CONSUMPTION; FISH CONSUMPTION; AQUACULTURE; FISHERIES; CHINA; NUTRITION; PRODUCTS; TRENDS; TRADE; MEAT;

D O I：

10.1038/s41467-021-25516-4

中图分类号：

O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];

学科分类号：

07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;

摘要：

Global demand for "blue food" is growing. In this quantitative synthesis, the authors analyse global seafood demand and project trends to 2050, finding considerable regional variation in the relationship between wealth and consumption. Numerous studies have focused on the need to expand production of 'blue foods', defined as aquatic foods captured or cultivated in marine and freshwater systems, to meet rising population- and income-driven demand. Here we analyze the roles of economic, demographic, and geographic factors and preferences in shaping blue food demand, using secondary data from FAO and The World Bank, parameters from published models, and case studies at national to sub-national scales. Our results show a weak cross-sectional relationship between per capita income and consumption globally when using an aggregate fish metric. Disaggregation by fish species group reveals distinct geographic patterns; for example, high consumption of freshwater fish in China and pelagic fish in Ghana and Peru where these fish are widely available, affordable, and traditionally eaten. We project a near doubling of global fish demand by mid-century assuming continued growth in aquaculture production and constant real prices for fish. Our study concludes that nutritional and environmental consequences of rising demand will depend on substitution among fish groups and other animal source foods in national diets.

引用

页数：14

共 89 条

[1] Small-scale fisheries in the context of traditional post-harvest practice and the quest for food and nutritional security in Nigeria [J].