Modeling the impacts of temperature during nesting seasons on Loggerhead (Caretta caretta) Sea Turtle populations in South Florida

Loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) are a threatened sea turtle species that nests on beaches along the northwestern Atlantic Ocean. Loggerhead nesting in Florida accounts for approximately 80% of the loggerhead population in the Atlantic Ocean, yet the underlying ecological mechanisms behind their population dynamics are understudied. C. caretta are largely inaccessible since they spend most of their early life in open ocean habitats. Consequently, their nesting and hatchling production offer quantifiable insight of their population dynamics. Emergence success, the proportion of eggs laid that produce offspring which successfully leave the nest, is the source of all later life stages. Yet the abiotic factors that drive emergence success trends have not been fully described. This study explores the relationship between air temperature and emergence success across multiple nesting seasons to better understand the potential impact of anthropogenic climate change on subsequent loggerhead populations. Here we investigate the effect of changing emergence success on the juvenile and adult life stages. After exploring numerous aspects of temperature and precipitation metrics, we determined that the mean of the maximum daily temperatures for each trimester of the eggs' incubation periods related most closely to the variation in emergence success (the proportion of hatchlings that make it out of the nest) across nests. A novel feature of our approach to modeling the impact of temperature on the later life stages is through connecting a statistical model into a discrete mechanistic population model. Our population model has two parts, one with eggs and hatchlings on a daily time scale in the nesting season and the other with juveniles and adults on an annual time scale. The statistical model enables us to illustrate the effect of temperature changes across these life stages. The decline in the adult population follows from the decline of the hatchling emergence success. Using predicted increases in temperature due to climate change, we illustrate a corresponding prediction for the population classes.