Effects of a US Supreme Court ruling to restrict abortion rights

Previous research focused on popular US Supreme Court rulings expanding rights; however, less is known about rulings running against prevailing public opinion and restricting rights. We examine the impact of the Dobbs v. Jackson Women's Health Organization opinion, which overturned Roe v. Wade's (1973) constitutional protection of abortion rights. A three-wave survey panel (5,489 interviews) conducted before the leak of the drafted Dobbs opinion, after the leak, and after the official opinion release, and cross-sectional data from these three time points (10,107 interviews) show that the ruling directly influenced views about the constitutional legality of abortion and fetal viability. However, personal opinions were not directly influenced and perceived social norms shifted away from the ruling, meaning that individuals perceived greater public support for abortion. We argue that extensive coverage of opposition to overturning Roe v. Wade supported this shift. Dobbs v. JacksonWomen's Health Organization also caused large changes, polarized by party identification, in opinions about the Supreme Court. A three-wave survey conducted before and after a major leaked and official ruling by the US Supreme Court shows that the ruling shifted views on abortion legality, had a contrasting effect on norm perceptions and polarized perceptions of the Court's legitimacy and support for reform.