Quantification of Water Resource Sustainability in Response to Drought Risk Assessment for Afghanistan River Basins

Drought in Afghanistan has many impacts from the interaction between environmental and socio-economic factors in the agriculture and water supply sectors. The complex topography and climate change impacts cause high spatial and temporal variation in the precipitation pattern and pose several challenges in managing water resources. Therefore, this paper aimed to quantify the sustainability of water resources against the progression of drought. Observed monthly precipitation data monitored by 23 stations located across five river basins covering the entire country for the period 1970-2016 were used to demonstrate the potential impacts of drought on water resources sustainability. Based on severe drought estimation, the year 2000 and 2001 were identified as change points. Accordingly, datasets pertaining to before and after the change points were partitioned to analyze the long-term temporal shift of drought. The spatiotemporal variability of sustainability indicators was estimated using reliability resiliency and vulnerability concept. The results indicated a positive trend of precipitation in most of the river basins after the change points leading to an increase in sustainability. However, the major portion in the upstream of the Kabul River basin showed a decrease in sustainability of around 15% due to a reduction in precipitation. As the Kabul city has high population density, it needs immediate attention in effectively planning and managing available water resources. Furthermore, the comprehensive analyses reported in this paper discuss the possible implications of drought risk assessment and its impact on largely varying sustainability both spatially and temporally in Afghanistan.