Early Circulating Tumor DNA Dynamics Predict Neoadjuvant Therapy Response and Recurrence in Colorectal Liver Metastases: A Prospective Study

Background For patients with colorectal liver metastases (CRLM) who receive neoadjuvant therapy (NAT), reliable indicators that can early and accurately predict treatment response are lacking. This study was conducted to prospectively investigate the potential of early circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA) dynamics as a precise predictor of NAT response and recurrence in CRLM.Methods This study prospectively enrolled 34 patients with CRLM who received NAT, with blood samples collected and subjected to deep targeted panel sequencing at two time points: 1 day before the first and the second cycles of NAT. Correlations of ctDNA mean variant allele frequency (mVAF) dynamics and treatment response were assessed. The performance of early ctDNA dynamics in predicting treatment response was assessed and compared with those of carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) and cancer antigen 19-9 (CA19-9).Results The baseline ctDNA mVAF was significantly associated with pre-NAT tumor diameter (r = 0.65; P < 0.0001). After one cycle of NAT, the ctDNA mVAF declined remarkably (P < 0.0001). The dynamic change in ctDNA mVAF of 50% or more was significantly correlated with better NAT responses. The discriminatory capacity of ctDNA mVAF changes was superior to that of CEA or CA19-9 in predicting radiologic response (area under the curve [AUC], 0.90 vs 0.71 vs 0.61) and pathologic tumor regression grade (AUC, 0.83 vs 0.64 vs 0.67). The early changes in ctDNA mVAF but not CEA or CA19-9 were an independent indicator of recurrence-free survival (RFS) (hazard ratio, 4.0; P = 0.023).Conclusions For CRLM patients receiving NAT, an early ctDNA change is a superior predictor of treatment response and recurrence compared with conventional tumor markers.