Air Quality Impact Estimation Due to Uncontrolled Emissions from Capuava Petrochemical Complex in the Metropolitan Area of Sao Paulo (MASP), Brazil

In the second quarter of 2021, the companies at the Capuava Petrochemical Complex (CPC, Santo Andre, Brazil) carried out a 50-day scheduled shutdown for the maintenance and installation of new industrial equipment. This process resulted in severe uncontrolled emissions of particulate matter (PM) and volatile organic compounds (VOCs) in a densely populated residential area (similar to 3400 inhabitants/km(2)). VOCs can be emitted directly into the atmosphere in urban areas by vehicle exhausts, fuel evaporation, solvent use, emissions of natural gas, and industrial processes. PM is emitted by vehicle exhausts, mainly those powered by diesel, industrial processes, and re-suspended soil dust, in addition to that produced in the atmosphere by photochemical reactions. Our statistical analyses compared the previous (2017-2020) and subsequent (2021-2022) periods from this episode (April-May 2021) from the official air quality monitoring network of the PM10, benzene, and toluene hourly data to improve the proportion of this period of uncontrolled emissions. Near-field simulations were also performed to evaluate the dispersion of pollutants of industrial origin, applying the Gaussian plume model AERMOD (steady-state plume model), estimating the concentrations of VOC and particulate matter (PM10) in which the population was exposed in the region surrounding the CPC. The results comparing the four previous years showed an increase in the mean concentrations by a factor of 2 for PM10, benzene, and toluene, reaching maximum values during the episode of 174 mu g m(-3) (PM10), 79.1 mu g m(-3) (benzene), and 58.7 mu g m(-3) (toluene). Meanwhile, these higher concentrations continued to be observed after the episode, but their variation cannot be fully explained yet. However, it is worth highlighting that this corresponds to the post-pandemic period and the 2022 data also correspond to the period from January to June, that is, they do not represent the annual variation. A linear correlation indicated that CPC could have been responsible for more than 60% of benzene measured at the Capuava Air Quality Station (AQS). However, the PM10 behavior was not fully explained by the model. AERMOD showed that the VOC plume had the potential to reach a large part of Maua and Santo Andre municipalities, with the potential to affect the health of more than 1 million inhabitants.