Risk Prediction in Male Adolescents With Congenital Long QT Syndrome: Implications for Sex-Specific Risk Stratification in Potassium Channel-Mediated Long QT Syndrome

BACKGROUND: Sex-specific risk management may improve outcomes in congenital long QT syndrome (LQTS). We recently developed a prediction score for cardiac events (CEs) and life-threatening events (LTEs) in postadolescent women with LQTS. In the present study, we aimed to develop personalized risk estimates for the burden of CEs and LTEs in male adolescents with potassium channel-mediated LQTS. METHODS AND RESULTS: The prognostic model was derived from the LQTS Registry headquartered in Rochester, NY, comprising 611 LQT1 or LQT2 male adolescents from age 10 through 20 years, using the following variables: genotype/mutation location, QTc-specific thresholds, history of syncope, and beta-blocker therapy. Anderson-Gill modeling was performed for the end point of CE burden (total number of syncope, aborted cardiac arrest, and appropriate defibrillator shocks). The applicability of the CE prediction model was tested for the end point of the first LTE (excluding syncope and adding sudden cardiac death) using Cox modeling. A total of 270 CEs occurred during follow-up. The genotype-phenotype risk prediction model identified low-, intermediate-, and high-risk groups, comprising 74%, 14%, and 12% of the study population, respectively. Compared with the low-risk group, high-risk male subjects experienced a pronounced 5.2-fold increased risk of recurrent CEs (P<0.001), whereas intermediate-risk patients had a 2.1-fold (P=0.004) increased risk. At age 20 years, the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk adolescent male patients had on average 0.3, 0.6, and 1.4 CEs per person, respectively. Corresponding 10-year adjusted probabilities for a first LTE were 2%, 6%, and 8%. CONCLUSIONS: Personalized genotype-phenotype risk estimates can be used to guide sex-specific management in male adolescents with potassium channel-mediated LQTS.