Paleo Distribution and Habitat Risks under Climate Change of Helleborus thibetanus

As an endemic species and the only Helleborus species in China, Helleborus thibetanus is highly valued in medicinal and ornamental applications, and basic research is needed for its further resource conservation and utilization. Considering the interesting disjunct distribution of the genus Helleborus, we focus on the distribution pattern of H. thibetanus in this research. Based on species distribution models using three different algorithms (MaxEnt, RF, and FDA), we constructed a robust ensemble model and predicted potential distributions under different scenarios: current situation, paleo periods since the Last Glacial Maximum, and simulations of climate change in the 2070s. The habitat suitability of H. thibetanus across geography and scenarios was further analyzed by calculating regional areas and centroids. The results showed that H. thibetanus is currently distributed in southern Shaanxi and northern Sichuan, while central and southern Sichuan used to be suitable 14 thousand years ago but gradually became unsuitable, which may reflect the population decrease in Sichuan and the population expansion in Shaanxi over the last 14 thousand years. Our results showed that current populations are under limited extinction pressure in the soft climate change scenario (ssp126), but most populations in Shaanxi are under extinction pressure in the hardy situation scenario (ssp585). Fortunately, northern Sichuan is predicted to be relatively stable under climate change (both ssp126 and ssp585), and regions in western Sichuan and eastern Qinghai are predicted to become newly suitable for H. thibetanus. These findings should be helpful for the further conservation and utilization of H. thibetanus and also help us understand the history of the conjunct distribution pattern of the Helleborus genus.