Assessing the hazard of fault triggering by deep geothermal energy production in an active fault system via a 1D stress model and 3D fault mapping

Borehole image data and a 1D-stress model built on open hole logs, leak-off tests (LOT) and image logs are used to evaluate the potential of seismicity caused by fault triggering during geothermal heat production in the city of Vienna. Data were derived from a 4220 m deep geothermal exploration well that investigated the geothermal potential of fractured carbonates below the Miocene fill of the Vienna Basin. The well penetrated several normal faults of the Aderklaa Fault System (AFS) that offset Pleistocene terraces at the surface and hence are regarded as active. Stress-induced borehole failures and 1D geomechanical modeling proves that the potential reservoirs are in a normal fault stress regime with S- v > S-Hmax > S-hmin. While stress magnitudes in the upper part of the well (down to about 2000 m) are significantly below the magnitudes that would trigger the rupture of critically oriented faults including the AFS, stresses in the lower part of the drilled section in the pre-Neogene basement (below about 3300 m) are not. Data evidence a rotation of S-Hmax for about 45(degrees) at a fault of the AFS at 3694 m to fault-parallel below the fault suggesting that the fault is active. Critical or near-critical stressing of the fault is corroborated by the stress magnitudes calculated from the 1D geomechanical model. The safety case to exclude unintended triggering of seismic fault slip by developing geothermal reservoirs in close vicinity to one of the branch faults of the AFS may therefore be difficult or impossible to make.