Tracing Time-Varying Characteristics of Meteorological Drought through Nonstationary Joint Deficit Index

被引:1
作者
Vinnarasi, R. [1 ,2 ]
Dhanya, C. T. [1 ]
Kumar, Hemant [1 ]
机构
[1] Indian Inst Technol Delhi, Dept Civil Engn, New Delhi, India
[2] Indian Inst Technol Roorkee, Dept Civil Engn, Roorkee, Uttarakhand, India
关键词
Drought; Climate change; Probability forecasts; models; distribution; STANDARDIZED PRECIPITATION INDEX; EXTREME PRECIPITATION; HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT; DRY SPELLS; INDIA; RAINFALL; TRENDS; WET;
D O I
10.1175/JCLI-D-22-0437.1
中图分类号
P4 [大气科学(气象学)];
学科分类号
0706 ; 070601 ;
摘要
Standardized precipitation index (SPI) is one of the frequently used meteorological drought indices. However, the time-varying characteristics observed in the historical precipitation data questions the reliability of SPI and motivated the development of nonstationary SPI. To overcome some of the limitations in the existing nonstationary drought indices, a new framework for drought index is proposed, incorporating the temporal dynamics in the precipitation. The proposed drought index is developed by coupling the joint deficit index with the extended time sliding window-based nonstationary modeling (TSW-NSM). The proposed nonstationary joint deficit index (NJDI) detects the signature of nonstationarity in the distribution parameter and models both long-term (i.e., trend) and short-term (i.e., step-change) temporal dynamics of distribution parameters. The efficacy of NJDI is demonstrated by employing it to identify the meteorological drought-prone areas over India. The changes observed in the distribution parameter of rainfall series reveal an increasing number of dry days in recent decades all over India, except the northeast. Comparison of NJDI and stationary joint deficit index (JDI) reveals that JDI overestimates drought when frequent severe dry events are clustered and underestimates when these events are scattered, which indicates that the traditional index is biased toward the lowest magnitude of precipitation while classifying the drought. Moreover, NJDI could closely capture historical droughts and their spatial variations, thereby reflecting the temporal dynamics of rainfall series and the changes in the pattern of dry events over India. NJDI proves to be a potentially reliable index for drought monitoring in a nonstationary climate.
引用
收藏
页码:4203 / 4217
页数:15
相关论文
共 59 条
[41]   A Robust Drought Index Accounting Changing Precipitation Characteristics [J].
Singh, Gauranshi Raj ;
Dhanya, C. T. ;
Chakravorty, Aniket .
WATER RESOURCES RESEARCH, 2021, 57 (07)
[42]  
Smith E.P., 2002, An Introduction to Statistical Modeling of Extreme Values
[43]   The development of a Nonstationary Standardized Precipitation Index using climate covariates: A case study in the middle and lower reaches of Yangtze River Basin, China [J].
Song, Zhihong ;
Xia, Jun ;
She, Dunxian ;
Zhang, Liping ;
Hu, Chen ;
Zhao, Lin .
JOURNAL OF HYDROLOGY, 2020, 588
[44]   Non-stationary frequency analysis of extreme daily rainfall in Sao Paulo, Brazil [J].
Sugahara, Shigetoshi ;
da Rocha, Rosmeri Porfirio ;
Silveira, Reinaldo .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2009, 29 (09) :1339-1349
[45]   Assessment of hydrological drought based on nonstationary runoff data [J].
Sun, Xueli ;
Li, Zhanling ;
Tian, Qingyun .
HYDROLOGY RESEARCH, 2020, 51 (05) :894-910
[46]   Use of the standardized precipitation index (SPI) and a modified SPI for shaping the drought probabilities over Turkey [J].
Turkes, Murat ;
Tatli, Hasan .
INTERNATIONAL JOURNAL OF CLIMATOLOGY, 2009, 29 (15) :2270-2282
[47]   A Multiscalar Drought Index Sensitive to Global Warming: The Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index [J].
Vicente-Serrano, Sergio M. ;
Begueria, Santiago ;
Lopez-Moreno, Juan I. .
JOURNAL OF CLIMATE, 2010, 23 (07) :1696-1718
[48]   Bringing realism into a dynamic copula-based non-stationary intensity-duration model [J].
Vinnarasi, R. ;
Dhanya, C. T. .
ADVANCES IN WATER RESOURCES, 2019, 130 :325-338
[49]   Unravelling Diurnal Asymmetry of Surface Temperature in Different Climate Zones [J].
Vinnarasi, R. ;
Dhanya, C. T. ;
Chakravorty, Aniket ;
AghaKouchak, Amir .
SCIENTIFIC REPORTS, 2017, 7
[50]   Changing characteristics of extreme wet and dry spells of Indian monsoon rainfall [J].
Vinnarasi, R. ;
Dhanya, C. T. .
JOURNAL OF GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH-ATMOSPHERES, 2016, 121 (05) :2146-2160