Forest herb species with similar European geographic ranges may respond differently to climate change

被引:9
|
作者
Puchalka, Radoslaw [1 ,2 ]
Paz-Dyderska, Sonia [3 ]
Dylewski, Lukasz [4 ]
Czortek, Patryk [5 ]
Vitkova, Michaela [6 ]
Sadlo, Jiri [6 ]
Klisz, Marcin [7 ]
Koniakin, Serhii [8 ]
Carni, Andraz [9 ,10 ]
Rasomavicius, Valerijus [11 ]
De Sanctis, Michele [12 ]
Dyderski, Marcin K. [3 ]
机构
[1] Nicolaus Copernicus Univ, Dept Ecol & Biogeog, Torun, Poland
[2] Nicolaus Copernicus Univ, Ctr Climate Change Res, Torun, Poland
[3] Polish Acad Sci, Inst Dendrol, Kornik, Poland
[4] Poznan Univ Life Sci, Dept Zool, Poznan, Poland
[5] Univ Warsaw, Fac Biol, Bialowieza Geobot Stn, PL-17230 Bialowieza, Poland
[6] Czech Acad Sci, Dept Invas Ecol, Inst Bot, Pruhonice, Czech Republic
[7] Forest Res Inst, Dept Silviculture & Genet, Sekocin Stary, Poland
[8] Natl Acad Sci Ukraine, Inst Evolutionary Ecol, Dept Phytoecol, Kiev, Ukraine
[9] Slovenian Acad Sci & Arts, Inst Biol, Res Ctr, Ljubljana, Slovenia
[10] Univ Nova Gorica, Sch Viticulture & Enol, Nova Gorica, Slovenia
[11] Nat Res Ctr, Inst Bot, Vilnius, Lithuania
[12] Sapienza Univ Rome, Dept Environm Biol, Rome, Italy
关键词
Climate change; Forest understorey; Herbaceous plants; MaxEnt; Species distribution model; ANEMONE-RANUNCULOIDES L; POTENTIAL IMPACT; DIVERSITY; NEMOROSA; RANUNCULACEAE; COLONIZATION; REPRODUCTION; GERMINATION; RICHNESS; EMPHASIS;
D O I
10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167303
中图分类号
X [环境科学、安全科学];
学科分类号
08 ; 0830 ;
摘要
Many phenological studies have shown that spring geophytes are very sensitive to climate change, responding by shifting flowering and fruiting dates. However, there is a gap in knowledge about climatic drivers of their distributions and range shifts under climate change. Here we aimed to estimate climate niche shifts for four widely distributed and common geophytes of the nemoral zone of Europe (Anemone nemorosa, Anemone ranunculoides, Convallaria majalis and Maianthemum bifolium) and to assess the threat level under various climate change scenarios. Using MaxEnt species distribution models and future climate change scenarios we found that the precipitation of the warmest quarter was the most important factor shaping their ranges. All species studied will experience more loss in the 2061-2080 period than in 2041-2060, and under more pessimistic scenarios. M. bifolium will experience the highest loss, followed by A. nemorosa, A. ranunculoides, and the smallest for C. majalis. A. ranunculoides will gain the most, while M. bifolium will have the smallest potential range expansion. Studied species may respond differently to climate change despite similar current distributions and climatic variables affecting their potential distribution. Even slight differences in climatic niches could reduce the overlap of future ranges compared to present. We expect that due to high dependence on the warmest quarter precipitation, summer droughts in the future may be particularly severe for species that prefer moist soils. The lack of adaptation to long-distance migration and limited availability of appropriate soils may limit their migration and lead to a decline in biodiversity and changes in European forests.
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页数:14
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