Predicting Adverse Cardiac Events After Radiotherapy for Locally Advanced Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

Background Radiotherapy may cause grade >= 3 cardiac events, necessitating a better understanding of risk factors. The potential predictive role of imaging biomarkers with radiotherapy doses for cardiac event occurrence has not been studied.Objectives The aim of this study was to establish the associations between cardiac substructure dose and coronary artery calcium (CAC) scores and cardiac event occurrence.Methods A retrospective cohort analysis included patients with locally advanced non-small cell lung cancer treated with radiotherapy (2006-2018). Cardiac substructures, including the left anterior descending coronary artery, left main coronary artery, left circumflex coronary artery, right coronary artery, and TotalLeft (left anterior descending, left main, and left circumflex coronary arteries), were contoured. Doses were measured in 2-Gy equivalent units, and visual CAC scoring was compared with automated scoring. Grade >= 3 adverse cardiac events were recorded. Time-dependent receiver-operating characteristic modeling, the log-rank statistic, and competing-risk models were used to measure prediction performance, threshold modeling, and the cumulative incidence of cardiac events, respectively.Results Of the 233 eligible patients, 61.4% were men, with a median age of 68.1 years (range: 34.9-90.7 years). The median follow-up period was 73.7 months (range: 1.6-153.9 months). Following radiotherapy, 22.3% experienced cardiac events, within a median time of 21.5 months (range: 1.7-118.9 months). Visual CAC scoring showed significant correlation with automated scoring (r = 0.72; P < 0.001). In a competing-risk multivariable model, TotalLeft volume receiving 15 Gy (per 1 cc; HR: 1.38; 95% CI: 1.11-1.72; P = 0.004) and CAC score >5 (HR: 2.51; 95% CI: 1.08-5.86; P = 0.033) were independently associated with cardiac events. A model incorporating age, TotalLeft CAC (score >5), and volume receiving 15 Gy demonstrated a higher incidence of cardiac events for a high-risk group (28.9%) compared with a low-risk group (6.9%) (P < 0.001).Conclusions Adverse cardiac events associated with radiation occur in more than 20% of patients undergoing thoracic radiotherapy within a median time of <2 years. The present findings provide further evidence to support significant associations between TotalLeft radiotherapy dose and cardiac events and define CAC as a predictive risk factor.