Understanding climate change impacts on drought in China over the 21st century: a multi-model assessment from CMIP6

被引：67

作者：

Xu, Feng ^{[1
]}

Qu, Yanping ^{[2
]}

Bento, Virgilio A. ^{[3
]}

Song, Hongquan ^{[4
]}

Qiu, Jianxiu ^{[5
]}

Qi, Junyu ^{[6
]}

Wan, Lingling ^{[1
]}

Zhang, Rongrong ^{[1
]}

Miao, Lijuan ^{[7
]}

Zhang, Xuesong ^{[8
]}

Wang, Qianfeng ^{[1
,9
]}

机构：

[1] Fuzhou Univ, Coll Environm & Safety Engn, Fujian Prov Key Lab Remote Sensing Soil Eros & Dis, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China

[2] China Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Res Ctr Flood & Drought Disaster Reduct, Beijing 100038, Peoples R China

[3] Univ Lisbon, Fac Sci, Inst Dom Luiz, Lisbon, Portugal

[4] Henan Univ, Coll Geog & Environm Sci, Kaifeng 475004, Peoples R China

[5] Sun Yat Sen Univ, Sch Geog & Planning, Guangdong Prov Key Lab Urbanizat & Geosimulat, Guangzhou 510275, Peoples R China

[6] Univ Maryland, Earth Syst Sci Interdisciplinary Ctr, 5825 Univ Res Court, College Pk, MD 20740 USA

[7] Nanjing Univ Informat Sci & Technol, Sch Geog Sci, Nanjing 210044, Peoples R China

[8] USDA ARS, Hydrol & Remote Sensing Lab, Bldg 007 Room 104, Beltsville, MD 20705 USA

[9] Minist Educ China, Key Lab Spatial Data Min & Informat Sharing, Fuzhou 350116, Peoples R China

来源：

NPJ CLIMATE AND ATMOSPHERIC SCIENCE | 2024年 / 7卷 / 01期

基金：

中国国家自然科学基金;

关键词：

STOMATAL CONDUCTANCE; SOIL-MOISTURE; ELEVATED CO2; PERFORMANCE; PROJECTIONS; DATASET;

D O I：

10.1038/s41612-024-00578-5

中图分类号：

P4 [大气科学（气象学）];

学科分类号：

0706 ; 070601 ;

摘要：

The future state of drought in China under climate change remains uncertain. This study investigates drought events, focusing on the region of China, using simulations from five global climate models (GCMs) under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5) participating in the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP3b). The daily Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) is employed to analyze drought severity, duration, and frequency over three future periods. Evaluation of the GCMs' simulations against observational data indicates their effectiveness in capturing historical climatic change across China. The rapid increase in CO2 concentration under high-emission scenarios in the mid- and late-future century (2040-2070 and 2071-2100) substantially influences vegetation behavior via regulation on leaf stomata and canopy structure. This regulation decelerates the increase in potential evapotranspiration, thereby mitigating the sharp rise in future drought occurrences in China. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and stakeholders to develop strategies and measures for mitigating and adapting to future drought conditions in China.

引用

页数：12

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