Urban expansion induced loss of natural vegetation cover and ecosystem service values: A scenario-based study in the siliguri municipal corporation (Gateway of North-East India)

Several cities in the world have been subjected to urban sprawl. For instance, in India, this process is responsible for environmental degradation. The case of Siliguri Municipal Corporation (SMC) is a good example. Therefore, a proper investigation of the urban expansion characteristics of SMC is required to provide a basis for sustainable urban environmental management. This study analysed the changes in land use and land cover (LULC), future scenarios prediction, and ecosystem services values (ESVs) estimation loss. LULC analysis showed that the built-up area increased from 17.26 sq. km to 36.98 sq. km between 2001 and 2015. As a result, the ESVs from natural vegetation decreased by 9.18 million US$/hectare/year during the same period. The urban growth prediction model was generated based using the Multi-Layer Perceptron Neural Network and Markov Chain. Four scenarios were designed to predict future LULC. The model has predicted a maximum urban expansion (66.46 sq. km) in the business-as-usual scenario. The lowest urban expansion (58.81 sq. km) was identified in the planning sce-nario. The lowest vegetation degradation was observed in the planning scenario. This study highlights the need for an urgent sustainable urban management plan.