Are female-dominated occupations a secure option? Occupational gender segregation, accompanied occupational characteristics, and the risk of becoming unemployed

In the German labour market, research hints towards a reversal in gender-specific risk of becoming unemployed: While women previously faced higher risk than men, in recent years, they have consistently lower risk. This paper analyses this reversal by focusing on the role of occupational gender segregation. I discuss theoretical differences in the labour supply and demand structure and thus in the unemployment risk of male- and female-dominated occupations caused by crowding and technological and sectoral change. Using the German National Educational Panel Study combined with occupation level data, I analyse the transition to unemployment over three decades. The results confirm gender-specific trends over time: While women faced higher risk of becoming unemployed in the 1980s, they face significantly lower risk than men in the 21st century. A Karlson-Holm-Breen decomposition shows that the lower risk of women in the newest decade under observation is mediated by the unequal distribution of men and women over the occupational structure. Yet, the higher risk of women in the 1980s cannot be traced back to differences in male- and female-dominated occupations. On the contrary, the results suggest that women were more likely to become unemployed in that decade independent of their occupation.