Interregional economic impacts of an extreme storm flood scenario considering transportation interruption: A case study of Shanghai, China

As engines of economic growth, coastal cities are vulnerable to future extreme floods with climate change and rapid urbanization. Flood damage and flood-induced transportation interruptions inevitably affect local economic activities and generate interregional ripple effects due to the networked economy. We incorporate the impacts of transport disruptions into the interregional input-output (IRIO) model and evaluate the combined economic effects of transport disruptions and supply chain bottlenecks on the mainland of China due to a 1,000year return period storm flood scenario in Shanghai. Except for production bottlenecks, the temporary rerouting of freight flows, transport delay and transport cost change are modeled, and important adaptive behaviors such as supplier substitution and inventories are also considered. Our results show that East China may suffer more than 53.1% of China's indirect economic losses (IELs), while Shanghai's IELs account for 28%. National IELs are very sensitive to the duration of transport delay, i.e., China's IELs increase by 80.8% if the delay time increases from 3 to 14 days. These findings highlight the importance of building a resilient transportation system and strengthening the resilience of regional supply chains and have significant implications for promoting urban resilience through various resilience strategies.