Flood response to urban expansion in the Lushui River Basin

被引:2
作者
Yan, Shixiong [1 ]
Long, Yuannan [1 ,2 ,3 ]
He, Huaiguang [4 ]
Wen, Xiaofeng [1 ]
Lv, Qian [1 ]
Zheng, Moruo [1 ]
机构
[1] Changsha Univ Sci & Technol, Sch Hydraul & Environm Engn, Changsha 410114, Peoples R China
[2] Key Lab Dongting Lake Aquat Ecoenvironm Control &, Changsha 410114, Peoples R China
[3] Key Lab Water Sediment Sci & Water Disaster Preve, Changsha 410114, Peoples R China
[4] Hunan Inst Water Resources & Hydropower Res, Changsha 410007, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Urban expansion; Lushui River Basin; HSPF model; Flood; CA-Markov model; LAND-USE CHANGE; CLIMATE-CHANGE; CLUE-S; URBANIZATION; IMPACT; RISK; CITY; SIMULATION; MODELS; AREA;
D O I
10.1007/s11069-022-05574-7
中图分类号
P [天文学、地球科学];
学科分类号
07 ;
摘要
This study used a cellular automata Markov model (CA-Markov) to predict future urban expansion scenarios in the Lushui River Basin and a Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran flood model (HSPF) to simulate the flood process. Flood trends were analyzed based on both measured and simulated data, and the flood response to urban expansion was characterized. This study had four main conclusions. (1) The HSPF and CA-Markov models accurately simulated flood processes and urban expansion in Lushui River Basin. (2) The area of construction land in the basin has continued to increase since 1980. Based on current development rules, 22% of the basin will be construction land by 2048. Therefore, land-use planning policies must be strengthened, and the utilization of rural lands must be increased, to help slow the growth of constructed land areas. (3) Urban expansion in the Lushui River Basin has increased the flood runoff depth by about 1-3% and peak discharge by about 6-18%. The magnitude of the impact was related to the return period of the flood: Floods with a shorter return period are more strongly impacted by urban expansion. (4) Compared with the current development model, the three future scenarios for 2048, obtained after strengthening land-use planning policies, all have the effect of reducing floods. Integrating scattered villages, ensuring basic farmland areas, and returning some farmlands to forests most significantly reduced flood impact.
引用
收藏
页码:779 / 805
页数:27
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