Assessing the Vegetation Dynamics and Its Influencing Factors in Central Asia from 2001 to 2020

As vegetation plays a critical role in terrestrial ecosystems, understanding its status and variation is vital for preserving the stability of an ecosystem. Central Asia serves as a representative example of an arid and semi-arid region characterized by sparse vegetation and poor soils, making its vegetation particularly fragile and sensitive. To investigate the vegetation condition in the region, this study examined the spatial and temporal characteristics of vegetation variation from 2001 to 2020, utilizing the normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) as an indicator. Meanwhile, trend analysis, Mann-Kendall abrupt change point test, geodetector, and correlation analysis were used to quantitatively analyze the natural and anthropogenic drivers of these variations over the past two decades. The results suggest that vegetation coverage in Central Asia was relatively low, with an annual average NDVI of 0.16 over the past 20 years. Moreover, the spatial distribution of NDVI in Central Asia exhibited significant spatial heterogeneity, with vegetation coverage declining from north to south and from east to west. Furthermore, the NDVI exhibited a slightly increasing trend during the period of 2001 to 2020 with an increased rate of 0.00025/yr. However, we detected an abrupt change point in vegetation dynamics in Central Asia around 2010, which indicated a significant shift in vegetation variation in the region. Land-use type has a great influence on the spatial heterogeneity of NDVI in Central Asia, which can explain 46% of the vegetation distribution in this region. Moisture factors such as precipitation and soil water content followed with 35% and 32% contributions, respectively. Regarding the temporal variation of NDVI, it is mainly driven by the fluctuation in precipitation, with the degree of influence of precipitation on NDVI varying for different regions in various geographical conditions. This study offers a more comprehensive insight into the spatial and temporal dynamics of NDVI in Central Asia and indicates that precipitation plays a significant role in driving the spatial heterogeneity and temporal variation of NDVI. These findings are essential for predicting vegetation changes in arid regions under future environmental conditions and formulating effective strategies to prevent and alleviate vegetation degradation.