Risk factors in patients with acute fatty liver of pregnancy: the role of abortion, total bilirubin and serum creatinine

Purpose Acute fatty liver of pregnancy (AFLP) is a relatively rare obstetric emergency usually accompanied by fatal complications. Numerous studies have evaluated the potential risk factors for outcomes in patients with AFLP. But rare studies evaluated the predictive ability, sensitivity and specificity of the risk factors for maternal mortality. Thus, in this multicenter research, we aimed to further prove the predictive ability of the MELD model, investigated the prognostic value of history of abortion (HOA), total bilirubin (TBiL) and serum creatinine (SCr) and explored new predictive models for predicting maternal mortality in patients with AFLP.Methods We performed a retrospective cohort study of 133 hospitalised patients with AFLP in four Chinese tertiary hospitals between January 2009 and April 2014.Results The maximal AUC amongst three independent risk factors for maternal death was TBiL with a cut-off point of > 131.9 mu mol/L, showing a sensitivity of 100% and a specificity of 55.9%. The threshold of the RF model for maternal mortality was - 1.629 and the AUC was 0.876, with an 81.8% sensitivity and an 80.2% specificity. The AUC for MELD model to predict maternal death was 0.894, and the best cut-off point was 28 with a sensitivity of 81.8% and a specificity of 84.7%.Conclusions Both the MELD model and the RF model showed good efficacy in predicting the maternal mortality in patients with ALFP (AUC = 0.894 and 0.876, respectively).