European Winter Climate Response to Projected Arctic Sea-Ice Loss Strongly Shaped by Change in the North Atlantic Jet

被引：10

作者：

Ye, Kunhui ^{[1
]}

Woollings, Tim ^{[1
]}

Screen, James A. ^{[2
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Oxford, Atmospher Ocean & Planetary Phys, Oxford, England

[2] Univ Exeter, Dept Math & Stat, Exeter, England

来源：

GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS | 2023年 / 50卷 / 05期

关键词：

Arctic sea-ice loss; North Atlantic jet; model uncertainties; temperature and precipitation; storm track activity; ATMOSPHERIC RESPONSE; AMPLIFICATION; ANOMALIES;

D O I：

10.1029/2022GL102005

中图分类号：

P [天文学、地球科学];

学科分类号：

07 ;

摘要：

Previous studies have found inconsistent responses of the North Atlantic jet to Arctic sea-ice loss. The response of wintertime atmospheric circulation and surface climate over the North Atlantic-European region to future Arctic sea-ice loss under 2 degrees C global warming is analyzed, using model output from the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project. The models agree that the North Atlantic jet shifts slightly southward in response to sea-ice loss, but they disagree on the sign of the jet speed response. The jet response induces a dipole anomaly of precipitation and storm track activity over the North Atlantic-European region. The changes in jet latitude and speed induce distinct regional surface climate responses, and together they strongly shape the North Atlantic-European response to future Arctic sea-ice loss. Constraining the North Atlantic jet response is important for reducing uncertainty in the North Atlantic-European precipitation response to future Arctic sea-ice loss.

引用

页数：10

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