A region-scale decoupling effort analysis of carbon dioxide emissions from the perspective of electric power industry: a case study of China

The goal of carbon peak and carbon neutralization puts forward higher requirements for the energy and electricity industry development in China. Jing-jin-ji region (short for Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei Provinces) as an important economic growth pole in China, its electric power industry realizing low-carbon transformation can play a good exemplary role nationwide. To clarify the key factors affecting carbon dioxide emission from electric power industry and analyze the relationship between emission and regional economic growth, the paper established decoupling effort model based on LMDI two phases decomposition model and Tapio decoupling index. Firstly, we collected the data of Jing-jin-ji region from 2000 to 2017 and conducted factors decomposition. The results show that: among the ten key factors affecting electric power industry CO2 emission, power generation and consumption ratio, fossil energy consumption coefficient and industrial structure have the most significant effect on CO2 emission reduction, with contribution rates of - 23.27, - 16.50 and - 11.91%, respectively. Per capita GDP and total population are the main positive driving factors, with contribution rates of 132.20% and 23.38%, respectively. Then from the perspective of decoupling relationship, the electric power industry in Jing-jin-ji region has entered a weak decoupling state since the Eleventh Five Year Plan with the decoupling index declined from 0.85 in 2004 to 0.38 in 2017. Excluding the influence of economic development, there are six driving factors to realize the weak decoupling, including (1) Power generation and consumption ratio effect, (2) Industrial structure effect, (3) Industrial power consumption intensity effect, (4) Fossil energy consumption coefficient, (5) Thermal power proportion effect and (6) Fossil energy power generation structure effect, in which the decoupling degree decreases in turn. The total population effect, transmission and distribution loss effect and resident power consumption intensity effect have not achieved decoupling status. At last, based on the model calculation results, we put forward suggestions to promote the low-carbon development of power industry in Jing-jin-ji region, for example, accelerate industrial structure upgrading and the adjustment of power generation structure; Strengthen electricity demand side management; Promote the construction of ultra-high voltage and smart grid as a whole.