Nomogram for the acute exacerbation of acetylcholine receptor antibody-positive generalized myasthenia gravis

Background and objective An acute exacerbation of myasthenia gravis (MG) can lead to the life-threatening myasthenia crisis which can increase the in-hospital mortality. This study aimed to clarify the correlative factor of the severity and activity of MG and the predictors of its exacerbation. Methods A prospective study was conducted to compare the clinical characteristics of acetylcholine receptor antibody (AChR-Ab)-positive generalized MG during acute exacerbation (AE) and in a stable state (SS). Logistic regression was used to determine risk factors, and a nomogram was developed. Results A total of 97 AChR-Ab MG patients were enrolled, of whom 44 had AE and 53 were in SS. The concentrations of AChR-Ab were 35.24 (23.26, 42.52) nmol/L and 19.51 (8.30, 36.93) nmol/L in the AE and SS groups (P = 0.005), respectively. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that a single AChR-Ab predicted severity and acute exacerbation, with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.679. Logistic regression analysis showed that, in addition to AChR-Ab (P = 0.018), bulbar symptoms (P = 0.001), interleukin (IL)-6 (P = 0.025), CD4(+)/CD8(+) T cell ratio (P = 0.031), and CD19(+) B cell proportion (P = 0.019) were independent risk factors for acute exacerbation of MG. The developed nomogram had an AUC of 0.878. The Hosmer and Lemeshow chi-square test was 4.37 (P = 0.929). Conclusion AChR-Ab concentration was positively correlated with the severity and activity of MG. AChR-Ab concentration, alongside bulbar symptoms, IL-6 concentration, CD4(+)/CD8(+) T cell ratio, and CD19(+) B cell proportion can predict the acute exacerbation of MG.