A Multicriteria Geographic Information System Analysis of Wildfire Susceptibility in the Andean Region: A Case Study in Ibarra, Ecuador

The uncontrolled spread of fire can have huge effects on ecosystems. In Ecuador, in 2022, wildfires caused a loss of 6566.66 hectares of vegetation cover. Ibarra is an Andean canton that has also been exposed to wildfires and their effects. The aim of this study was to map wildfire susceptibility in the Ibarra canton. Seven factors that directly affect these fires were examined: precipitation, temperature, water deficit, potential evapotranspiration, slope, proximity to roads, and land cover and land use. The variables were reclassified using Geographic Information Systems and a multicriteria analysis. The results showed that Ibarra has four susceptibility categories: very low, moderate, high, and very high. The more susceptible areas are those considered to have high and very high exposure, occupying 82% of the surface. Consequently, the most susceptible land covers are crops, pastures, shrub vegetation, and forests.