Flood vulnerability under sea level rise for a coastal community located in a backbarrier environment, Portugal

Sea level rise will be a major threat to coastal communities within the next century due to the intensity and severity of the floods it can cause. A new methodology considering water infiltration, slope, and hydraulic connectivity was developed to assess the potential inundation extension associated with different total water level and sea level rise scenarios on sandy coasts. This methodology was applied for the current conditions as well as 2050 and 2100 scenarios of storm surge and high tide levels with return periods of 1 year and 100 years. The study area is Culatra village, located on the lagoon side of a barrier island in southern Portugal. The effects of shoreline evolution after the construction of a harbor and associated beach nourishment were also evaluated within the inundation scenarios. The results show that, within the study area, total water level variations caused by sea level rise have a greater influence on the inundation extension than shoreline retreat. The village appears to be safe for the current and 2050 total water level scenarios with a 1-year return period but would be highly affected by 100-year return periods, especially from 2050 onwards. This novel approach represents an improvement on more common flood mapping methods such as the bathtub approach and can be easily applied to other backbarrier environments under sea level rise or facing coastal erosion.