Predicting symptomatic post-hepatectomy liver failure in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma: development and validation of a preoperative nomogram

ObjectiveTo develop and validate a nomogram based on liver stiffness (LS) for predicting symptomatic post-hepatectomy (PHLF) in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC).MethodsA total of 266 patients with HCC were enrolled prospectively from three tertiary referral hospitals from August 2018 to April 2021. All patients underwent preoperative laboratory examination to obtain parameters of liver function. Two-dimensional shear wave elastography (2D-SWE) was performed to measure LS. Three-dimensional virtual resection obtained the different volumes including future liver remnant (FLR). A nomogram was developed by using logistic regression and determined by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis and calibration curve analysis, which was validated internally and externally.ResultsA nomogram was constructed with the following variables: FLR ratio (FLR of total liver volume), LS greater than 9.5 kPa, Child-Pugh grade, and the presence of clinically significant portal hypertension (CSPH). This nomogram enabled differentiation of symptomatic PHLF in the derivation cohort (area under curve [AUC], 0.915), internal fivefold cross-validation (mean AUC, 0.918), internal validation cohort (AUC, 0.876) and external validation cohort (AUC, 0.845). The nomogram also showed good calibration in the derivation, internal validation, and external validation cohorts (Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, p = 0.641, p = 0.06, and p = 0.127, respectively). Accordingly, the safe limit of the FLR ratio was stratified using the nomogram.ConclusionAn elevated level of LS was associated with the occurrence of symptomatic PHLF in HCC. A preoperative nomogram integrating LS, clinical and volumetric features was useful in predicting postoperative outcomes in patients with HCC, which might help surgeons in the management of HCC resection.