From natural gas to hydrogen: Navigating import risks and dependencies in Northwest Europe

Energy security has become a key driver of the European Union's (EU) hydrogen ambitions, especially in the wake of Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its weaponization of gas exports. At the same time, the EU's Hydrogen Strategy relies heavily on imports, which should meet half of the bloc's demand by 2030. This raises a crucial question: Will future hydrogen imports effectively address the EU's historical security of supply concerns, or will they merely perpetuate existing vulnerabilities? To answer that question, this study analyzes the history of natural gas trade in Northwest Europe, using an analytical framework rooted in socio-technical regime theory. The underlying assumption is that, while the future of hydrogen trade is uncertain, its development may echo that of natural gas, given their physical similarities. Our findings reveal that the development of hydrogen markets is more policy-driven and could follow a different trajectory than natural gas, with seaborne (derivative) shipments preceding pipeline trade. The hydrogen market has significant potential to be less unified and concentrated than natural gas markets, reducing the risk of supply disruptions. However, the exact energy security consequences of hydrogen imports depend on choices made today, which will likely establish enduring path dependencies. Therefore, rather than automatically favoring the most cost-effective import pathway, policymakers should prioritize demand reduction (via efficiency and conservation), diversification (across suppliers, routes, and carriers) and resilience to shocks (facilitated by storage and emergency contingency planning).