POTENTIAL DISTRIBUTION OF THE CARACAL (CARACAL CARACAL SCHREBER, 1776) UNDER CLIMATE CHANGE

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase in global temperatures of between 1.48 degrees C and 5.88 degrees C during the 21st century. Using climatic habitat suitability (climate envelope) models, we assessed the potential influence of climate change on the range of the caracal (Caracal caracal Schreber) based on the IPCC's future climatic scenarios. According to our model, the caracal faces probable local extinction risks in future warming scenarios. The results of this study indicated that the caracal's response to climate change was dependent on its adaptive likelihood and the present and future probability of climate change. The caracal's suitability exhibited trends toward local extinction in the future. We suggested that its placement on the IUCN Red List be reassessed. The caracal abundance is predicted to become dramatically reduced in the Mediterranean region but to increase towards the east and south of Africa due to climatic conditions in the future. Bioclimatic envelope models do not account for non-climatic factors such as land use, biotic interactions, human interference, and dispersal or history, and results should therefore be seen as first approximations of the potential magnitude of effect of future climatic change for the caracal species.