Predicting interindividual response to theta burst stimulation in the lower limb motor cortex using machine learning

Using theta burst stimulation (TBS) to induce neural plasticity has played an important role in improving the treatment of neurological disorders. However, the variability of TBS-induced synaptic plasticity in the primary motor cortex prevents its clinical application. Thus, factors associated with this variability should be explored to enable the creation of a predictive model. Statistical approaches, such as regression analysis, have been used to predict the effects of TBS. Machine learning may potentially uncover previously unexplored predictive factors due to its increased capacity for capturing nonlinear changes. In this study, we used our prior dataset (Katagiri et al., 2020) to determine the factors that predict variability in TBS-induced synaptic plasticity in the lower limb motor cortex for both intermittent (iTBS) and continuous (cTBS) TBS using machine learning. Validation of the created model showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.85 and 0.69 and positive predictive values of 77.7 and 70.0% for iTBS and cTBS, respectively; the negative predictive value was 75.5% for both patterns. Additionally, the accuracy was 0.76 and 0.72, precision was 0.82 and 0.67, recall was 0.82 and 0.67, and F1 scores were 0.82 and 0.67 for iTBS and cTBS, respectively. The most important predictor of iTBS was the motor evoked potential amplitude, whereas it was the intracortical facilitation for cTBS. Our results provide additional insights into the prediction of the effects of TBS variability according to baseline neurophysiological factors.