Characteristics of Regional GPS Crustal Deformation before the 2021 Yunnan Yangbi Ms 6.4 Earthquake and Its Implications for Determining Potential Areas of Future Strong Earthquakes

The 2021 Yangbi Ms 6.4 earthquake in Yunnan, China, occurred in an area where the Global Positioning System (GPS) geodetic observations are particularly intensive. Based on a detailed retrospective analysis of the GPS observations of about 133 stations distributed in the proximately 400 km x 400 km region that contains the area affected by the earthquake., we obtain a high-resolution GPS velocity field and strain rate field and then derive the present-day slip rates of major faults in the region with the commonly used half-space elastic dislocation model and constraints from the GPS velocity field. Furthermore, by calculating the seismic moment accumulation and release and deficit rates in the main fault segments and combining with the distribution characteristics of small earthquakes, we evaluate the regional seismic risk. The results show that (1) there was a localized prominent strain accumulation rate around the seismogenic area of the impending Yangbi Ms 6.4 earthquake, although this was not the only area with a prominent strain rate in the whole region. (2) The seismogenic area of the earthquake was just located where the strain direction was deflected, which, together with the localized outstanding maximum shear strain and dilatation rates, provides us with important hints to determine the potential areas of future strong earthquakes. (3) Of all the seismogenic fault segments with relatively high potentials, judged using the elapsed time of historical earthquakes and effective strain accumulation rate, the middle section of the Weixi-Qiaohou fault has a higher earthquake risk than the southern section, the Midu-Binchuan section of the Chenghai fault has a higher risk than the Yongsheng section and the Jianchuan section of the Jianchuan-Qiaohou-Lijiang-Xiaojinhe fault has a higher risk than the Lijiang section.